With 2023 now within the rearview, automakers have set about counting all of their proverbial beans. Whereas full outcomes are nonetheless pending for a lot of outstanding producers, we already know that 2023 was as near a “regular” auto sales 12 months as we have seen since we closed the books on 2019. The pandemic and ensuing supply-chain mess at the moment are behind us (for probably the most half, anyway) and the business’s shift towards electrified choices has been abrupt, to say the least. Each will make direct comparisons of gross sales figures tough within the years to come back, however at the least issues have stabilized in the intervening time. Here is what we anticipate from the 2023 numbers as they proceed to be launched, together with what we’re watching in 2024.
Electrified autos and the The Inflation Discount Act
Electrical and hybrid car adoption elevated but once more in 2023, with early estimates pointing to greater than 1,000,000 BEV/HEV/PHEV gross sales in the US alone — or near 10% of the entire market. The IRA launched a brand new electrified car tax credit score construction that threw current gross sales narratives for a loop. For the primary time, it closely incentivized prospects to purchase EVs constructed by (or with components from) American producers. We anticipate to see the affect from this within the closing 2023 gross sales figures, and it will all get thrown for a loop again for 2024, which is topic to a new eligibility list.
Regular stock and the return of reductions
2023 introduced the idea of new-car stock again in a giant approach. Whereas some automakers have been in a position to inventory their heaps to a level, 2023 was the primary time we noticed constant stock at sellers nationwide for the reason that pandemic began in 2020. And whereas costs won’t ever actually “come again down” to the place they have been in 2019, transaction costs have largely stabilized and automakers are saying fewer and smaller will increase to their MSRPs and incentives have returned, both on gasoline vehicles and EVs.
Stabilization of the high-end and EV markets
With costly credit score comes lowered hypothesis, and whereas that could be excellent news for fanatic consumers who’ve been scrimping and saving for his or her dream retirement automobiles, it is dangerous information for automakers whose sellers have been raking in cash hand over fist on high-end halo fashions. With a steady market comes the return of the massive “D” — depreciation. That idea has been largely absent from any dialogue of the premium automobile market in recent times, however with provide growing and demand stagnating, there’s just one course for values to go: down. The fast devaluation of used luxurious automobiles returned with a vengeance in 2023 and a few early adopters of luxurious EVs realized the laborious approach that there aren’t any ensures within the resale market. That is broadly excellent news for buyers, although, as markups on electric cars ought to largely be a factor of the previous.
GM and Tesla be a part of the full-size electrical pickup section
Chevrolet formally delivered 461 Silverado EVs in 2023 and Tesla delivered, nicely, a non-zero variety of Cybertrucks. They be a part of the Ford F-150 Lightning, Rivian R1T and arguably the Hummer EV to type the present crop of full-size electrical pickups. They range in functionality and supposed mission and arguably signify some of the diversified segments in your entire business.
What to observe in 2024
Yep, America stays truck-crazy. Whereas Ford hasn’t launched its full 2023 gross sales outcomes, it did rush to the mic the moment its accountants confirmed that the F-Sequence stays the best-selling nameplate in the US with greater than 700,000 bought. However large vans aren’t essentially the massive story. The midsize section has been promoting nicely, and between the petite Ford Maverick, oddball Hyundai Santa Cruz and a few as-yet-unnamed newcomers we anticipate to study extra about in 2024, there is a pickup for nearly any purchaser within the market. We anticipate extra large wins for small vans in 2024.
It is a quick record and it is getting shorter. Whereas issues aren’t fairly as bleak for sedan followers as they’re for many who worship at the true altar of automotive ingenuity, it will appear shortsighted to anticipate a turn-around in 2024. Hopefully we cannot lose too many extra beloved nameplates.
Bronco vs. Wrangler
The rivalry is not new, however even footing actually is. With the provision chain now more-or-less cooperating, we might lastly have the ability to take this critically. And who is aware of, perhaps we’ll invite the brand new Toyota Land Cruiser to play when the time is correct?
Whether or not you favor them electrified or with , old school V8, these costly and insanely fast (in a straight line, anyway) machines captivated American consumers in 2022 and 2023; with the Hummer EV SUV becoming a member of the sector this 12 months, will demand stay excessive?
The mainstream luxurious section is all the time a dogfight, however with their various approaches to electrification, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, Lincoln, Audi, Genesis, Infiniti and Acura are within the midst of reshaping the premium panorama. Who’s doing it proper? We’ll see what the purchasers resolve.
2024 is a giant 12 months for electrification throughout a number of segments. We anticipate to see Ram’s new “unlimited-range” RamCharger (do not name it a PHEV) and the primary significant quantity of deliveries for some stragglers on GM’s Ultium EV platform. Tesla can be within the midst of overhauling its older fashions and who is aware of, perhaps we’ll even get some information on the next-gen Roadster? We’ll monitor what’s scorching and what’s not within the EV area.
The Autoblog Miata Index
What’s the Autoblog Miata Index? Why, it is solely automotive gross sales metric that actually issues. That is proper, we’re simply counting Miatas. Why? Effectively, we like them, for starters, and as a metric for what number of True Believers™ are on the market buying cars, it is as arbitrarily good (or dangerous) as the rest. We totally notice that in any given 12 months, absent manufacturing or provide points, we might seemingly be served simply as nicely by graphing the common daytime excessive temperature in the US. We do not care. M.I.A.T.A.
8,973 Miatas have been bought in 2023. That is a rise of 45.4% over 2022 — and 15.7% over its complete quantity from 2019*. It is official, then. 2023 was 12 months.
*Why 2019? Usually, we might examine solely to the prior 12 months, however evaluating on to 2022 gross sales totals paints solely a partial image. 2019 was the final full 12 months of reported gross sales previous to the provision chain chaos that occurred within the wake of Covid, making for a extra dependable level of comparability in lots of cases.