NORWAY 2020 YTD RESULTS SHOW AN INTERESTING PICTURE
– 328,802 BEVs bought altogether
– 53,915 BEVs bought in 2020 YTD
YTD Rating :
1. Audi e-Tron
2. VW Golf
3. Nissan Leaf
4. Hyundai Kona
5. Tesla Mannequin 3
6. MG ZS
7. VW ID.3
8. BMW i3
9. Polestar 2
10. Kia Niro https://t.co/WenjFdnF7S pic.twitter.com/UePp4m2xtW
— JPR007 (@jpr007) October 4, 2020
Background
Tesla’s Norway Model 3 sales peaked in March 2019 at an incredible 31% of the market with around 5,700 vehicles. That stage of dominance wasn’t sustainable. There was lots of people in Norway that had ordered a Tesla Mannequin 3 the identical day I did, March 31, 2016. Tesla had a smooth quarter within the US for the reason that tax credit score had simply been reduce in half and the primary quarter is at all times seasonably sluggish. Tesla took benefit of their manufacturing capability to ship some automobiles to the Norway market that had been ready virtually 3 years for the Mannequin 3. At the moment, their different decisions have been that you would have an inexpensive EV like a Nissan Leaf with a decrease vary, efficiency and have set. Or you would pay about twice the cash for a Tesla Mannequin X or S. What about fuel and diesel automobiles you may ask. Properly, fuel is over $7 a gallon in Norway due to high taxes that discourage the purchase and use of gas cars. Electrical energy on the other hand is very reasonable at about 9 cents a kWH. This implies evaluating a Mannequin 3 to a fuel automobile that will get 25 mpg, the fuel automobile would value about $28 to drive a 100 miles (use 4 gallons at $7 a gallon). The Mannequin 3 would use about 25 kWh at 9 cents a kWh or about $2.25 in fuel or over 90% financial savings in gasoline. You’ll be able to see why EV’s have such an ideal adoption in Norway!
Present Scenario
The explanation Tesla’s gross sales will not be main the market are 2 fold.
- The competitors is stronger. The VW ID.3, Polestar 2, MG Mini EV, Audi E-tron, Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro weren’t broadly obtainable in March 2019.
- The Tesla was caught without warning by the COVID 19 shutdown of their manufacturing facility in California. By the point the manufacturing facility reopened, it was too late to ship automobiles to Europe for the second quarter. Had Tesla put automobiles on a ship to go to Europe, they’d have missed out on recognizing these gross sales within the second quarter and never been worthwhile. So Norway and the remainder of Europe had few Tesla’s to promote within the second quarter.
Do not forget that these folks promoting these Mannequin 3s, paid lower than this when it was new!
There isn’t a cause for this, until Norway is getting rather a lot much less Mannequin 3s than they want AND that Tesla hold the value excessive to take advantage of the market, whereas filling up orders in different markets.
— Kimmono (@kimmono) October 6, 2020
You’ll be able to see that for the reason that used automobiles are promoting for a premium to the brand new Tesla Mannequin 3’s, as quickly as Tesla can get extra automobiles shipped to Norway, they are going to have the ability to retake some share, even earlier than the Berlin Gigafactory opens and additional improves their aggressive place. After all, by then, there will probably be extra higher competitors for them additionally. Will probably be an thrilling 12 months and we anticipate the share of EV’s bought in Norway to proceed to climb till it reaches 100%. It will occur by 2025, since fuel and diesel automobiles gross sales will probably be banned, however it may even occur sooner if no person needs one in say, 2024.
Future Scenario
Subsequent yr, because the Berlin Gigafatory begins to construct Mannequin Y autos and later Mannequin 3 automobiles, Tesla will probably be a a lot stronger place to retake the main place in Norway’s EV market. They are going to have decrease transport prices and they may be able to reduce prices more than you think as we speculated in this article. As well as, the wait time to obtain a car ordered must be significantly decrease because the manufacturing facility will probably be near the markets and provide must be extra in step with demand.
Paul Fosse is a Software program Engineer delivering monetary knowledge marts utilizing massively parallel databases (Exadata and GreenPlum) for a serious healthcare insurer and a lifelong lover of automobiles. From the time I noticed the 1972 Volkswagen Dasher evaluation in Shopper Stories, I knew the business would convert to front-wheel drive. Now I’m excited to have a front-row seat to the business’s largest transition in generations, the transition from fuel and diesel automobiles to electrical autos. I ordered my first EV (Nissan Leaf) in 2010 and now personal a 2018 Tesla Lengthy Vary Mannequin 3 and have a Cybertruck and a Mannequin Y on order. Contact me on Twitter at Paul Fosse with ideas for brand spanking new tales. Full disclosure, I am a Tesla Shareholder.
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